According to what I'm told at The Central Banks meetings held in washington , the IMF did (and has stated for couple months now) that Iraq (as a sovereign nation) could INTRODUCE their currency at any time.
And that they would be supportive and help out in any way they could BUT that if they gave it more time and focused on a laundry list of actions to take namely robust private sector banking, production of other goods & services (not just rely on oil) , make foreign investment & capital more attractive, increase security issues and provide a atmosphere of safe tourism ,
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They also have expressed the need for political stability. This is the recipe of SUSTAINABILITY of a strong currency to introduce & manage with less volatility.
The IMF is a body of guidance and assistance. It isn't one really of enforcement such as many have alluded to .
The issue of concerns that the IMF has addressed to Iraq is not just to introduce the currency which in a nutshell they have said sure do it whenever but it's your ball and you bear the results and consequences.
IMHO ( and this has been explained to me numerous times by my contact) the premise that any other country or any 3 letter organization is in charge of the rollout of another sovereign nations currency program is false.
None of them want the responsibility of failure. And make no mistake about it : SUSTAINABILITY is the key.
That's why I completely reject the notion of an introduction of a $20 + rate. And some believe that's a rate only for us here in the USA while everyone else gets much, much less. Well, I won't even answer that.
According to what I was explained, there have been two schools of thought in Iraq for some time ( and I've reported this many times before) .
There's the camp of economists and lawmakers adhering to the IMF plan , in fact components of which were drafted in the Economic Reform Law (hopefully to pass this week) and rollout of it's policies in months ahead and the other camp of immediate action ( in fact as many have reported , myself included) sometime here in late October/early November.
Evidently what scares the IMF about this plan is it's aggressive nature in terms of both timing & rate and that there's a fear of (high) rate tanking in the open market.
According to what I was learning Saturday there seems to be a growing consensus to follow the IMF advice, rollout the Economic Reform Law and build a platform of sustained growth. I believe that's the road they will take.
But this is Iraq and we have been surprised many times over. I do expect a better than expected rate if they focus on a recipe of sustained growth .
We all want to be at the banks today but just consider them introducing at 1000-1 ( JUST AN EXAMPLE) and having it sit there on the free market with no movement or the alternative of introducing a much stronger rate down the road and our return is much better. Which would you prefer ??
C'mon Iraq let's build a country !!!
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