Iko Ward: Well, an interesting start to our day. The world markets are all hovering around 0.00% The ISX hasn't traded since the 15th. Forex polled the basket this morning but barely moved, might as well be 0.00. It's like everyone is waiting.
Siesta: IKO good mornng....have you seen anything on the Rial - I am wondering if that is the new catalyst
Iko Ward: Siesta..Rial is a restricted currency and not traded. In my opinion it is just the latest fad here in Dinarland to get worked up over. Iran is a long shot when it comes to policy and behavior. If you like high risk for it.
Siesta: Thanks Iko just wondering as it popped and got UN approval so quickly - I have very mixed feelings about Iran in general but was just wondering if "they are the money to watch" as the catalyst in the puzzle
Bonsboom: IMO The Iran Rial is not a fad...there is a real possibility that it could RV soon with sanctions lifted...$3 range? maybe.
Siesta: bonshoom I tend to agree...they will not wait for anyone...I'd thought Iraq would want to be first...we will see. They are only becoming able to internationally trade again…..Iran does not have to do anything to their currency except to be able to trade internationally if I am understanding it all correctly
Iko Ward: bons, based on our history with currency revaluations, do you think it is really that simple? Do you think the PTB will destabilize the area by revaluing Iran overnight and not Iraq? You and I will not be privy to the immediate effects of an Iranian move. But could it happen? Yes……But hey, what do I know? Risk is fun.
Iko Ward: Dong is still higher. Dong has always been #2 in the basket.
Bonsboom: IKO... I appreciate your experience and the info you share...I was just stating my belief based on intuition.
Iko Ward: bons...and you could be right. That's why the markets are so seductive. Sometimes thinking outside the box is where the winners are.
Blackjack7: (Late Monday Night) I forgot one thing I believe that this RV will come like a thief in the night… a lamb if you will not a lion...No big fanfare it will just be...good night dear friends and all of TNT
[xyz] Iraq MPs set to approve anti-money laundering law ./ Saleh: "It will also meet Iraq's financial interest and open the way for the country to conduct economic activities at the international level," Central Bank Governor Ali Al Allaq said the new law would help reassure foreign investors. "The new law will facilitate the entry of big companies into Iraq and increase their confidence in the country's economic environment," he said. http://www.zawya.com/story/Iraq_MPs_set_to_approve_antimoney_laundering_law-ZAWYA20150721103626/
[xyz] Urgent Cabinet approves 45% cut off for all Ministers' salaries http://en.alliraqnews.com/modules/news/article.php?storyid=2148
BGG ...there are NUMEROUS - REGULAR - DETAILED articles, reports and comments by very powerful figures in Iraq about Monetary policy and Monetary Reform - ALMOST EVERY DAY...either something is happening - or the Iraqi people are going to be one very unhappy bunch!
What? How much? When? What will it look like? What about the exchange mechanism?
Who knows? BUT - something is PLAINLY UP...
Topic: Life is a succession of moments, to live each one is to succeed. Corita Kent
Lifting sanctions will release $100 billion to Iran: Report
Tehran, July 21, IRNA – An American news website said removal of sanctions will give Iran access to enormous financial resources.
The website 'Examiner' quoted the executive director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies Mark Dubowitz as saying “The money is sitting in China, India, Japan, South Korea, Turkey, maybe a little bit in Taiwan.'
“No company wants to wake up to a front-page story that its business partner is Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or that the new US president has re-imposed tough sanctions”, Dubowitz said.
His ministry said there was “great interest on the part of German industry in normalizing and strengthening economic relations with Iran”.
KTFA Monday night Conference Call
Approx. 208 minutes long
The first part is Business Promos, and the second part is Iraq/Dinar Intel
PLAYBACK # : 760.569.7699 PIN: 156996#
Thunderhawk » July 20th, 2015, 8:11 pm
Wall Street Opens Flat Despite Solid Corporate Earnings
US stocks swung between gains and losses, as optimistic corporate profits pushed the market up, while the decline in energy and commodities due to a cheaper oil rendered investors wary of a possible broader retreat should the earnings-propelled bull market lose momentum.
Kristian Rouz — US shares have been seen flat at the open on Monday, with the Nasdaq Index having hit its third consecutive record high before an insignificant retreat. While investors' general sentiment is bullish amidst the optimistic corporate earnings expectations being confirmed so far, in the tech sector in particular, a decline in raw materials producers left market participants feeling cautious, resulting in less buying bets — at least, until tech heavyweights like Apple Inc. post their Q2 profits.
Trading in New York has been dominated by several major factors early on Monday. As the US corporate earnings season is underway. With tech giants like Google Inc. and Netflix having posted solid profits late last week, pushing the market higher, Wall Street is in a bull market at this point. However, the retreat in commodities shares, along with the overwhelming downward pressure on energy and utilities sectors, all stemming from a cheaper crude, halted the rally in stocks. Investors have taken their time until more solid earnings reports are posted before the across-the-board stock rally may be resumed.
The S&P 500 Index was 0.07%, or 1.43 points, down, at 2,125.15 points, at 10:44 AM in New York, trading now just six points below its fresh all-time highest. The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index, fluctuating between gains and losses, was last 0.07%, or 11.79 points, up, at 18,098.25. The tech-driven Nasdaq Index is flat currently, with traders awaiting fresh reports from the listed companies. Thus far, any company posting earnings above previous expectations will trigger an over-the-top buyout in shares.
However, there is a lot more to the market situation than just the corporate figures. While some profit statements are indeed better than anticipated, the yearly gains in US corporate profits are mostly lackluster, with a stronger dollar eating off a large part of the overseas-generated income, while the domestic US market is flooded by cheap imports, and competition is fierce.
Among all those enterprises having reported their profits so far, 71% beat previous expectation, a good sign for the market, as that is above the average of 63% companies surpassing earlier quarterly profits projections usually. But in terms of revenue, only 51% of US firms beat forecasts, below the average of 61%.
While there is no earth shattering news from either Greece or China, US investors have been concentrating on earnings figures, and these are yielding only moderate optimism. US enterprises are projected to post their worst sales in six years in Q2 due to the stronger dollar, impairing overseas sales. Profits are 2.9% down, as estimated by Thomson Reuters.
This week, some 25% of the S&P-listed companies are reporting profits, and IBM is reporting later today. The IBM profits report is likely to determine whether the market will be up or down at the close. Market participants are also looking into any signals coming from the US Fed on whether and when the regulator is planning to move the interest rate. Also, the US jobless report is due this week.
The market volatility index VIX rose 1.2% today after having slumped dramatically last week by 29% as the Greek concerns eased.
Among the S&P sectors, energy and commodities were the worst performers, while tech and healthcare gained the most. US oil prices have declined for the fourth straight session, the likes of Southwestern Energy Co and Chesapeake Energy tumbled (-3.1% each thus far), due to the renewed concern of oil oversupply as Iran is planning to double its crude output.
The Bloomberg Commodities Index slid 1.2%, bad news for America's lumber mills, coal and metal mines and other commodity producers and traders, as the measure is nearing its 13-year lowest. A sluggish demand for raw materials is an alarming signal for the broader economy as it indicates a weak development in infrastructure. Meanwhile, a stronger dollar also impairs precious metals, with gold tumbling.
Walkingstick » July 20th, 2015, 9:12 pm
In landmark move, China opens up interbank bond market
Jul 20, 2015, 1:37 pm SGT
SINGAPORE (REUTERS) - China has announced a landmark liberalisation of its domestic bond market only weeks after clamping down on the stock markets to halt a crash.
The People's Bank of China has granted full access to the 25 trillion yuan (S$5.49 trillion) interbank bond market to overseas central banks, sovereign wealth funds and international financial institutions.
The move indicates that the internationalisation of the renminbi, or yuan, remains on track despite the recent turmoil in the country's stock markets.
Jan Dehn, head of research at Ashmore, an emerging markets investment manager, said the measures would further encourage central banks to increase their exposure to the Chinese government bond market.
"The volatility in the Chinese markets is due to insufficient market depth, not fundamental issues," said Dehn."By continuing reforms, China is dealing with these teething problems in exactly the right way."
In addition to unrestricted access to the bond market, these foreign institutions will also be able to participate in interest rate swaps and repo transactions. The PBoC said such institutions should act as long-term investors and "conduct trading based on reasonable needs for preserving or increasing the value of their assets".
Nomura put the size of the onshore interbank bond market at 25 trillion yuan. It said that interbank transactions totaled 210 billion yuan per day on average in the first quarter, accounting for 90 per cent of total onshore bond market transactions.
"As of June 2015, foreign investors held 546 billion yuan of onshore bonds, which represents about 2.2 per cent of the onshore interbank bond market," wrote Nomura. "Even if we assume this proportion only increases to 5.0 per cent, it would represent net inflows of approximately 700 billion yuan.
"In addition to government bond markets, policy bank bonds should also benefit, as they collectively comprise 41 per cent of total bonds outstanding, while government bonds comprise only 34 per cent."
The broker said the move would cause the onshore-offshore spreads for both bonds and interest rates to narrow gradually in the medium term.
China's intervention in the stock market, and the risk that controls could be imposed on the bond market in the event of a crisis there, did not seem to deter foreign investors from holding yuan paper.
Ewen Cameron Watt, global chief investment strategist at Blackrock, said that he expected the yuan to be added later this year to the currency basket backing the International Monetary Fund's Special Drawing Rights, an international reserve currency, which would increase demand for bonds denominated in yuan.
"If you internationalise your currency, you have to have bonds to back it, and those bonds have to be freely tradable internationally," said Mr Watt.