Tampadinar: It seems to me that now "The Bottleneck" is removed means, now tha Chapter 7 has been released they can remove the Bottleneck( meaning not having a tradable currency) so investors can become active in Iraq and grow the economy which will make the value of the Dinar FLOAT upwards to $1=1IQD.
At that time they can start the removal of 3 zero notes and release the lower denoms just as the call last nite explained.
HandOverFist: Question: What happens if the float begins, and the dinar floats quickly to a dollar, and (as Saleh said) they can only issue the lower denoms at the beginning of the year?
What would happen in that case...........if the dinar is equal to a dollar, say in November, and they cannot issue the new currency until January 1st?
Tlar: Sorry guys, I may be wrong but I think if they do float the currency it will be at the same time they remove the zeros. I believe they will remove the zeros making the currency .86 or $1.00, then they will defend that rate with a dirty float for 1 to 2 years. This was all spelled out to us in the 2008 study.
Read More Link On Right
Tlar Continues: Your belief in this or that is conditioned by the events that have occurred in between the study and today. I also believe that last year before he was removed Shabibi did indeed decide he had to do something with the currency and rather than continue to fight the government, had decided to just free float the currency.
I believe almost from the get go of Turki's governorship of the CBI, he had made the decision to again revert back to the study which recommends RVing the currency followed by a period in which the bank holds and defends the rate. Today they are in better shape to RV than at any time since 2003.
They have reduced the dinar in circulation and have had a 2 fold increase in the reserves with more billions to come in. Turki is boldly guarding those reserves against the government trying to use them, has declared the banks independence on many occasions, and has been referencing "removal of the zeros" as an event as far back as December of last year.
I believe we are waiting for a straight up RV at .86 to $1.00 once again and that's the reason the currency has not been released to float as of yet. Otherwise there would no reason not to begin the float.
IMHO this will happen all at once, RV and dirty float. I know I'm going against the grain here but that's what I see happening. I think they are following the 2008 study as their road map again.
Kaperoni: Maliki didn’t want a 1 to $1 rate back in June 2011 and again April 2012. That is what is required for the "lift zeros" project and what Shabibi intended to do. It is a fact, Maliki stopped him. What makes you think he is going to give 1 to $1 now? especially since the title of this article is..."Central bank: the project raise zeros from the currency is still deferred" lol.
I know people don't want to hear it, but unfortunately that appears to be the way it is. What we can expect is exactly what is stated...which is a gradual rise.
Tlar, it is unlikely the global central banks would play in the dinar reserve game at 1 to $1 under the current conditions in Iraq. With Shabibi yes, but not with Turki and Maliki interferring in monetary policy.
Tobyboy: Tlar That sounds good to me. On another note,I don't know if you remember, talking about using gold in their basket to determine rate , said this on another article discussing gold, about 2-3 years ago they had announced they had discovered vein of gold worth billions ,
I believe remember they working on sewer system at the time when discovered. Can't locate the article. But after that release they didn't talk about it again.
I have feeling they been bringing in the gold ever since why they been saying gold more than their foreign reserves. I thought this was interesting with the strength of the dinar going along withyour above comments. Your thoughts
Kaperoni: Yes FE, if they would have launched the staging rate (.86) under the orginial plan, I believe a managed float would be in place. But since that was shot down, the "floating orbit of exchange" is the new plan. Well documented, well discussed and if you a refresher, go to Kap section, Enorrste wrote a nice write up...
Mexia 74: So Tlar, why the delay?
Tlar: Kap, it is my belief that Turki is not seeking government approval as did Shabibi. I think articles of where he has stated not at this time, or not today or it has been delayed are all cover to keep the government off his back for now and a good defense for later because if I'm right, he will end up in court as is Saleh. I think he will spring this on the government when he is ready.
I believe Turki knows that if he waits for government approval, hell will have to be frozen before this gets done. It is according to the constitution of Iraq, his decision and his decision alone.
The CBI is independent constitutional body and is charged with the responsibility for monetary policy with its main task, to support price levels, subdue inflation and to support the value of the dinar only.
I think Turki is going his own way because he understands that Maliki does not want and will always stand in the way to get this done. He has the knowledge of history on his side and the recent experience of Shabibi. He has help in the international community and the backing of the IMF.
I think once he knows everything is aligned he will surprise us along with the government of Iraq.
I think he is close to doing it but we will never privy to what the hold up is or was even after a change in the currency. It could be as simple as dinar is still pouring in ad the CBI wants to take advantage of this because each dinar received by the CBI and destroyed, at this time represents a cancellation of Iraqi debt.
It also could be that the international community has a basic handle on this and has set a target of repatriation of dinar from Syria and Iran that is close, but not met as of yet. It also could be that they were not ready on July 1st and the next accounting period isn't until October 1st.
It also could be as simple as he is waiting on a specific law or some technical integration of technology in the banks.
No matter what, I believe that Turki is doing this on his own now and no longer looks to seek approval from the government. I agree that my belief is a leap of faith but logically for me, I can't see Maliki, if he is still a part of this decision, agreeing behind closed doors with an RV or a float.
I think if Maliki thinks its about to happen, he will do anything and everything to stop it as he has done each of 3 times in the past, including bringing false charges to remove Turki as he did Shabibi.
He has already brought those charges of 10 tens of gold being stolen by Turki when there were rumors that the removal of the zeros were about to take place which prompted those stupid statements from the bank of not today, and it has been delayed etc.
If he really believed Turki was about to do something with the currency, he would arrest him and have him charged later. It could be that the law Turki is waiting on if that is what the holdup is, may be the law on the Judicial powers.
Turki may be looking to this law for protection because he knows Maliki will come after him the minute he does something. I believe Turki is a true statesman trying his best to get this done no matter the obstacles. Time will tell whether I'm full of it or I'm on track.
Tlar: No FE, I'm talking straight up RV
Russ: This discussion is great, and what it is rearly about is the process where the currency is going to get to a $. We are all agreed that approx 1 to 1 is just a matter of a little more time. which by the way...Is so cool. There are only two things that interest me.
1. THE RATE........And I can see a buck! Done
2. WHEN......... Either Kaps or Tlar's posts/senerios, It does not matter which you choose. (I'm standing with a foot in each camp) put me at .............1iqd = $1 at 1st Jan 2014.
Punisher: Tlar, if what you say comes to pass then it looks like we might actually have to wait until January for that...my reason being January is a new year, January 1st is the beginning of an accounting period and January is when they said removing the zeros would happen...
Tlar: Punisher, there are 4 accounting periods in a year. Iraq's fiscal accounting is Jan 1st through Dec 31st. The four accounting periods are the four quarters.
The next accounting period is October 1st followed by Jan 1st, then April 1st followed by July 1st. If as they have said they won't split an accounting period is true, then one of these will qualify as the start date.
These are the accounting periods in a calendar year only, not a prediction by me as to when it will happen, although I think October looks strong now because of the release of VII.
BelievingInTheBest: Punisher; in tlar's scenario, the CBI would say January 1st for removing the zeros to keep Maliki thinking that things would still be far away. With tlar's scenario Iraq could implement the tariffs sooner and bring investments into the country at a much quicker pace. Just food for thought.
Punisher: Kaps theory is the float will possibly begin soon and by January be at or near $1. Tlar, your theory is a flat out rv of .86 - $1 that could possibly begin by Oct 1st (if they are ready at that point). Either way both you and Kap think by January we should have at least $1. I hate waiting another 5 months but hey...life goes on. At least if people want to get more dinar they have time...
Kaperoni: Tlar, I believe their are references in a few articles recently of the government ongoing interference in monetary policy. I would have to look, but I remember seeing that. And if so, than Turki is just a pawn in Maliki's control. The recent article about the law for "Training Center monetary and banking" seems to confirm my theory that the government wants more of a hand in monetary policies. This quote seems obvious to me...
She added that "the draft law project provides for the replacement of Banking Studies Center training center monetary and banking in the Central Bank of Iraq to develop technical and practical treatments for fiscal and monetary policy."
And that "the Centre will be watching the decline and rise in the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar and the nature of economic laws as well as the development of staff expertise in the banking sector." LINK
Maybe I am wrong, but it sure seems these responsibilities or decisions are the CBI and CBI alone.
Tlar: Thanks Kap. There is a difference between being a pawn or giving the appearance to be while working your own agenda. Constitutionally, Turki has the ability and the right to make this decision if he feels it is for the betterment of Iraq. It's his job..
I think if the government were in control they would announce this has been delayed for another year or something definitive as they have done in the past especially based on your analysis of Maliki's week dinar policy. Turki has thus far recently managed to keep the government heat to a minimum with statements like the above where he mentions delay.
Pretty much at the present time, Maliki and the boys are staying off his back with the exceptional dig here and there yet we know the bank is following Shabibi's lead with the auctions.
We also know Maliki wants control of the 82 billion being released to the CBI and we have heard Turki's response. "The government will not get these funds."
Also he is continuing to guard the reserves while defending them against the government raiding them I think Turki is working Maliki over appearing as much as he can to be a yes man, which we know through his actions and public attacks by Maliki, he is not. I believe he is a smart guy using what tools are available to get his job done. Of course IMHO. .
WEDREAM: pawn or not turki needs those laws passed b4 he can safely proceed. shabibi knew the same which is why he said 3 years ago the govt needed to be set b4 he could/would do anything with the monetary policy ie:exchange rate/delete the zeros .those banking laws are imperitive to a succesful change in monetary policy its all about the dinar
Tlar: P.S. I have really enjoyed our discussion. I personally hold your thoughts and beliefs on this as equal to my own maybe even more enlightened.
Again, as we wait to see what they are going to do, it not a question of who is right or who is wrong because in the end we all have a common hope.
Nobody is keeping score and every ones view IMO is valuable to enlighten and understand all avenues of this investment, as we explore these articles to search for there meaning. It is precisely why I'm here at DA.
This site is the only site that doesn't mind looking at different views. The site is class act as are you Kap and Ennorste and Bob. I have in the past recommended DA to friends and family and I will do so in the future. .
Sherry: I'm with u Russ!
Diditrvyet: Is this too crazy of an idea that they could change their fiscal year starting in July, RV, and come out with LDs? How was the budget posted? To me, Iraq is not showing us all her cards. We may get surprised, good or bad.
BlueyesinLevis: Monday.. both the Federal Courts law and the Federation Council law are front and center on the agenda. Once they completely take away Maliki's control of the Courts ( Desposing once and for all Maliki's stooge, the Wicked Mahmoud) then the Federal Courts can protect Parliament who can move forward and implement the Federated Council.. to be sworn in by the New Judges trained in the USA.
Once the FC in place Allawi, who will run the F.C., says he can set up Govt. in 48 Hours. Then the entire basket of laws is a done deal.. and the 7 points of Erbil are implemented. The Provincial Councils are in control of Sceurity and Defense locally..( Thanks to the amendments to Provincial law #21) and Maliki has then had the sticks kicked out from under the flimsy platform he is now standing on.-
I would further speculate... that the unopened budget could be and likely IS backdated to January 1st of this year... and so for all intents and purposes the fiscal year problem is overcome.
-"Some people say I am a dreamer.... but I'm not the only one...one day I hope you'll join us.. and Iraq will learn to live as one." ~ John "Abdulla" Lennon.
2COLLECTG: my bet is on moon he made the statement to the world you guy`s ever think that they might just be doing a audit of the funds that have been returned to ensure they can maintain any rate!
-i bought this stuff for a penny i just want to sell mine back for a dime