TheSecret: Hi Frank, in your post you write "in the process of entering ........RI" I thought you mentioned the RI process was started in and around December 2015?
Venustwo: Frank, I thought that you had said that the 98% that was done was indeed the RI and the other 2% is the RV. Now you said we are in the process of entering the RI. What am I missing on these 2 conflicting statements. I have to work till 9pm tonight so will miss some of the info on the cc when I get home, but definitely will listen to the play back.
SupremeDalek: This is strictly my opinion, but the "Process of moving into the RI phase" more than likely has many parts to it. One part that comes to mind is the "Reducing of the note count of the existing Iraqi Dinar currency". This would obviously be an ongoing event that would take time to measure and assess.
SupremeDalel: Another piece would be "Readying the Iraqi Banks for the international world". Also, there were probably segments of legislation that were also needed before any value could be given to Iraq's currency.
In addition to this, there was the matter of "getting the new currency printed and distributed to the banks and loaded onto the books of the government".
This too would be considered another segment of the "RI" process, in my opinion.
So, in theory, in order for Iraq to "RI" their currency, one would think that a number of these "Events" had to occur first and the very last piece of this "RI" process would be the raising of the value of the Iraqi Dinar itself.
I think what Frank is trying to tell us is that we're moving into this last segment of the "RI" right now. Again, this is my opinion and it's based on what I see happening with Iraq at the present time.
Frank26: Yes .............. My apologies................... Total Explanation in a few hours ........ C U on Your MONDAY CC.
SupremeDalek: Let's recap ... TIMEFRAME ANALYSIS
Iraq has from May 9, 2016 until June 4, 2016 to get it's currency turned back on so that it can be Article 8 compliant which would then allow Iraq to receive the loans that Jack Lew has authorized for release to Iraq provided that they have met their goals.
So Ramadan appears to be a key timeframe. Last year, the Iraqi citizens were promised "The Best Ramadan Ever". Maybe it was for Abadi, but it wasn't for them. If these reforms are not yet completed by Ramadan, I would expect the Iraqi citizens to be on a rampage this time around (1 whole year later after Abadi made his infamous statement)
If they miss the "Prior to Ramadan" window, and the government hasn't been overthrown by then, then I'm guessing that maybe the "July 7th window" would be a possibility because Eid-Al-Fitr is a celebration holiday.
This is only my opinion but logically one can see how things are lining up. Would they still get the Jack Lew loans if they missed the June window? I don't know.
The IMF did say that Iraq would be back globally in the first half of 2016. July would be outside of that window.
Things should start to get interesting ........
Ramadan - June 5, 2016 at Sundown until July 6, 2016 (1 Full Month) - Historically, nothing ever happens during this timeframe.
Eid-Al-Fitr (End of Ramadan) - July 7th until July 9, 2016 (3 Days) - A celebratory Holiday for the people.
Republic Day - July 14, 2016
Eid-Al-Adha (Feast of Sacrifice) - September 13, 2016 until September 16, 2016 (4 Days)
SDR Basket (Which includes Chinese Yuan currency) gets activated.
Whatever: All I know is that for the many years (10) I've held this investment, nothing really happens during Ramadan, which this year is:
Ramadan 2016 begins Monday, June 6 (in 28 days) Itends Tuesday, July 5
We're practically half-way through with May, the next 3 weeks should reveal all, IMHO.
SupremeDalek: If they haven't given value of some kind to the Iraqi Dinar "Before Ramadan", then I hope that our Government takes full control of the air waves over there so that the only programs that Iraqia Television will be broadcasting to their people will be "Beavis and Butthead", "Family Guy" and re-runs of the "Jerry Springer" show.
That should give them the wake up call that they've been needing in order to make some changes to their leadership....
Islandg1211: IMO, Ramadan has Nothing to do with the Monetary Reform nor the global changes happening around the world. The two are just not related, but could be just coincidental.
IMO, the Monetary Reform was planned, outlined, supervised and assisted by the IMF starting last Fall, cumulating in the December 2015 LOI. This corresponded directly, IMO, with the commitment by the United States to remove ISIS and send more troops into Iraq. The overall plan seems to have also involved backing PM Abadi.
I stand by my opinion, that last March, during Abadi's meetings with the IMF, he did not get outside support, but just the autonomy to RV. In my opinion, Iraq was told to "get their act together." At the time, no one listen to me. With all the political opposition and corruption, and Abadi's lack of innate leadership skills, he couldn't move the ball forward.
In fact, the GOI has only passed the Anti-Money Laundering Law last Fall, under threat of being placed on the Black List. The GOI hasn't passed a major law in six months. The fact is, Abadi didn't get legislation passed, nor arrest Maliki and Shahristani.
IMO, the RV was never in play prior to April 28th, 2016 because the needed steps in the LOI (Letter of Intent) had to be completed and they will have to be reviewed. The major indicator, IMO, that the plan for the Monetary Reform, is being completed, is the co-signing of Iraq's debt by the U.S. Secretary of the Treasury. Bonds, loans, an improved credit rating, and the final review of the IMF's first half of 2016 LOI plan, have all been reported to be in process and appear to be on schedule.
Additionally, a recent article affirmed that the loans - and IMO, the Monetary Reform - is going forward regardless of the political drama. IMO, I agree completely with Frank's Intel that the BIS approved of Iraq's Monetary Reform on April 28. As stated, I certainly did not agree with other opinions in 2015, nor have I had any communication with Frank or his Intel concerning the BIS. Yet, I believe they are correct.
The U.S. has more control of Iraq's monetary reform and the fight against ISIS. Again, my opinion as to the timing of the RV was based on the change of policy from the U.S. end of 2015 compared to Spring of 2015. Although, the U.S. has less direct impact with the politics of the GOI, certainly, they have influence.
The newly appointed Ambassador to Iraq, hopefully, will better serve our interests. There appears to be a change in policy towards Iraq and their Monetary Reform, IMO, because of the chaos that broke out in the GOI and citizen protest.
It looked like the U.S. had the policy of using the Monetary Reform as an incentive to get through the political reforms, while leaving Maliki and company in place. I would not be surprised to see a change in both aspects of that strategy because it didn't work as well as thought.
So, now we get an article stating that the loans - and I believe the RV/Article VIII compliance - are (now/change in U.S. policy being implied) independent of the GOI. We also see a new face in the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad to go along with this new policy.
So, instead of using the withholding of the RV as a threat to get the GOI reformed, IMO, the U.S. will now go ahead with the RV. This, in turn, will ignit the HCL causing the needed reforms within the GOI.
There appears to be a calm after - and maybe - before the next storm in Iraq.
Sadr is suddenly being quieted. Abadi has at least five Ministers. The Kurds again used their threat to not show up, thereby denying a quorum, as a bargaining chip, to get paid. But, they seem set to go back to work.
The question remains, however, if Abadi (and the U.S.) is again going to attempt to get the GOI to vote in the rest of the Ministers and pass the reforms before arresting Maliki and Shahristani?
IMO, that strategy did not work, and U.S. has changed to the strategy of arresting Maliki first, as well. Letting the RV go through independently, arresting Maliki, keeping Sadr quiet, and changing Ambassadors, may finally bring progress.
IMO, the reconstruction phase in Iraq is ready to begin now, even though the complete freedom of Mosul is expected to take another nine months, according to statements made by Barzani and the DOD (hopefully, that estimate is being shortened.) But, regardless of Mosul, there's a lot of Iraq and the Iraqi economy that can be re-constructed.
But, the RV is the first step towards rebuilding and diversifying the economy and moving towards a growing private sector.
Thus, the Monetary Reform which cumulates in an internationally recognized currency with value, prompts both progressive changes politically within the GOI, and the economy.