The Finish Line Part 5
Remember, it has been seen on many occasions that Iraq will have one of the strongest currencies in the region. I can personally assure you that .00089 or what it is now is not considered strong.
Furthermore, they are co-sharing a port with Kuwait. Do you really think Iraq and Kuwait will share a major economic port with Iraq's currency valued at .00089 and Kuwait at 3.62 or so against the US Dollar?
It is in the news from months ago that the new banking system was put into place and we confirmed thru our sources that they have been trained on the new system. You do not put this type of major reform in a system that has a worthless currency?
In the past, we took the approach of "check boxes". We thought we knew what boxes needed to be checked, but in reality, there are many more than anticipated.
This weekend was huge with respect of great positive articles. One of the things we all need to watch is the "follow the money" concept. Ray shared some very great news about Shell oil and their productions last week. We now have the Erbil Agreement back into action and hopefully into law very soon.
I am going to repeat some information from a previous post this weekend for those whom missed it.
Ray and I would like to add a few more things, not only did Shabibi state his concerns as mentioned, our sources which had very strong and close friendship with parliament, also stated (then) that the currency was approved to re-valuate but would not until the government, HCL and Erbil agreements are in place.
Read More Link on Right
It is now my understanding that the HCL has several parts to it and some of them have been voted on and approved. Just a few things left for the actual completion of all parts.
This was then, and it somewhat appears to be fairly accurate. There is a lot of talk of the Iraqi currency changing in value, however, when Shabibi when on Iraqi TV and stated so, I think he felt that all of the things mentioned above would be resolved in a timely manor.
Ray and I have stood on this principle from day one and pretty much still believe that way.
Another concern that not only our country has, but the voice of many other countries is the lack of security in Iraq with no Defense and Security Ministers in place.
The Erbil agreement being implemented is a huge step that will allow the rest to fall into place. This is very positive but please do not think that one it is currency will automatically just jump to is new value. I said all along, this has to be in place before it can move forward.
One thing to remember, Dr. Shabibi will not go on Iraqi TV and tell the people that their currency will increase in value very soon if he had no intentions of doing so for many years to come. All this would do is cause more tension among the citizens. They have enough of that already. This information was very powerful because it was actually on Iraqi TV and some of Rays contacts saw it and heard it.
This type of news does not get any better than that.
Back in 2010 the SIGIR (Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction) report stated this: "Staff supports the CBI’s intention to continue to manage the exchange rate with a view to keeping inflation low. A strong and stable currency provides a solid anchor for the
public’s expectations in an otherwise highly uncertain environment."
(I think this message is loud and clear that the budget must contain a STRONG RATE or the entire country and economy is a destiny for failure.)
Ministry of Finance and the CBI: “The Ministry of Finance together with the Central Bank are studying a proposal to raise the value of the Iraqi dinar in order to return it to previous levels where one Iraqi dinar was valued at 3.33 US dollars.” Further elaboration on the plan that was being worked on was also given in the same article: “A statement by B.J. AL Zubaidi, the Minister of Finance, in which he said that he had suggested to the Chairman of the Central Bank, Dr. Sinan AL Shibibi, that three zeros be taken from the Iraqi Dinar in order to raise its value so that one Dinar be equal to a Dollar.”
The IMF stepped in and has reportedly called for:
◦changes at the level of the spending;
◦reduction of inflation;
◦a plan to encourage the private sector; and,
◦a plan to address employment levels in governmental departments.
I also talked about the Ministry of Planning (MOF). MOF Amended Exchange Rate Document
1. It is necessary to put central controls to amend the official exchange rate * to reflect the shadow price of the foreign currency, and that is considered one of the necessary requirements to implement the net discounted present value standard and the internal return rate on investment in the economic calculation stated in the instructions, paragraph nine.
(* What is meant by exchange rate: the number of units of foreign currency, expressed in dollar per one dinar.)
2. Justifications for exchange-rate adjustment: there are a number of important and powerful arguments which support the view that the official exchange rate reduces the real value of foreign currency for purposes of calculating the economic national profitability for investment projects and hence for the purposes of investment planning. It is demonstrated in this context to call for assessing the dinar for less than (3.208) dollar (official exchange rate) when assessing project outputs and inputs of traded goods of exports, substitute imports and imports... etc.
Here is the best news yet!
Baker Jaber AL Zubaidi: Iraqi Dinar Value should be Raised<-- Article to support this.Reserve is sufficient to raise the value of the Iraqi dinar
Let's all keep in mind the following:
We know also for a fact is that until they, at a minimum reinstate there currency back to the $1.00 IQD to $3.22 USD as it was before Saddaam took over. The IQD is not internationally recognized, that means no other banks outside of Iraq recognize it as legal tender. Which means it cannot be deposited into an account nor can there be any electronic funds transfers into the international community outside of Iraq. Why is that important, well we know Iraq has been working hard to develop relationships globally.
Let's talk briefly about this part.
1.) Azzaman reports that the Ministry of Industry and Minerals has asked South Korean firm Daewoo to rehabilitate its steel industry, which has been idle for more than three decades. Iraq had built one of the Middle East’s largest steel complexes, called the State Company for Iron and Steel, near the port of Umm Qasr, about 45 km south of Basra. According to the report, the complex was built by a French company and partly completed by the late 1970s, but production was halted in 1980 with the start of the Iraq-Iran war.Article.
2.) TEDxBaghdad will Make the Impossible Possible when it brings some of the country’s – and world’s – brightest minds to Baghdad’s Al-Rasheed Hotel to imagine the Iraq of the future. Through a series of talks and performances by a diverse array of talent, TEDxBaghdad will inspire a new Iraqi narrative in the wake of war while capitalizing on the rich cultural history of a region known as The Cradle of Civilization. Article.
3.) The Mayor of Baghdad, Sabir al-Issawi, met representatives of the French company Sistra [Systra] to discuss the studies and designs for the Baghdad Metro Project, a Mayoralty statement reported on Wednesday, according to Aswat al-Iraq. Article.
4.) Australia’s Ambassador to Iraq Ms Lyndall Sachs visited Erbil this week to exchange views with President Masoud Barzani and Prime Minister Barham Salih on political and economic developments and to discuss increasing economic relations. Article.
5.) Poland’s Ambassador to Iraq Mr Stanislaw Smolen met KRG’s Head of Foreign Relations on Wednesday to discuss establishing a Polish representative office in the Kurdistan Region. Article.
6.) The Trade Ministry adviser said Kurdistan on Monday, the Italian economy development Minister and representatives of 55 Italian company will visit Kurdistan today, to participate in the Italian Economic Forum-planned joint in Kurdistan capital Arbil on Tuesday. Article.
7.) Built on the land of the port stronghold in Basra governorate weekend international exhibition of agricultural equipment, together with the participation of 120 domestic and foreign companies, according to official media gallery. Article.
8.) Iraqi Investment Authority announced Monday granted 24 licences fro private sector companies worth 24 billion dollars during more than two years. Article. <-- I really liked this one.
9.) The Federal Transport Ministry announced on Monday the allocation of 60 million dollars in balance of 2012 for the railway. Article.
Plus hundreds more of nothing but positive intents by global countries and companies.
While we are on the subject of banking, how about this analogy.
Perspective on Iraq’s private banks by IraqiXchange
Summary: With inflation stabilized, oil production up and government encouragement to become better capitalized, private banks are drawing potential foreign investment partners because they are positioned for success in Iraq’s post-war economy.
Baghdad – A resurgent oil economy, projected GDP growth at more than 12 percent and a record level of foreign investment point to signs that the private banking industry in Iraq is looking at substantial growth, a new report on Iraqi banking says.
The groundbreaking analysis, conducted by Ahmad Saleh, senior research analyst at IraqiXchange, also indicates that for the first time in the modern era, bank deposits in Iraq accounted for more than half of the money supply.
“Iraq’s economy is growing out of its wartime difficulties quickly and transitioning from a centralized economy to one that is market-based,” says Saleh, an Iraq native and veteran North American banking analyst.
“With credit accounting for more than one-third of bank revenue and deposits at record levels, our analysis identifies attractive and specific investment opportunities in the Iraqi banking sector,” Saleh says.
HSBC of London, Qatar National Bank and National Bank of Kuwait are among those with stakes in Iraqi banks, and more financial institutions are following.
“We are very optimistic about Iraq over the next three to five years,” says Dennis Flannery, Citi’s country head for Iraq and a former U.S. financial attaché who previously worked at the World Bank and Bank of America. “Our feeling is that good progress is being made, and we expect to see really significant increases in the GDP in coming years — really significant.”
The Middle East and Africa banking sector is second only to Asia’s in growth potential, according to the 2011 Barclays Corporate Global Banking Survey of 200 top banking and insurance services executives.
Influenced by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, the Iraq government is phasing in an increased capitalization requirement for all banks.
”The hope,” Emirates Bank investment strategist Irfan Chaudhry tells IraqiXchange, “is that new capital requirements will bring consolidation, increased investment and more interest from foreign banks.”
While we are talking about banks, I loved this news:
Capital Bank Opens first National Bank of Iraq Branch in Erbil <-- Best news yet!
As part of its expansion plans across Iraqi provinces, and in an effort to offer premium banking services and facilities to its corporate clients, Capital Bank announced the opening of its first National Bank of Iraq (NBIRQ) branch in Erbil.
Through its acquisition of a controlling 72% share in the National Bank of Iraq (NBIRQ), Capital Bank is the only Jordanian bank in Iraq offering superior services that facilitate and fund trade and banking services between clients in Jordan and Iraq.
The new Erbil branch was inaugurated by His Excellency Dr. Barham Salih, Prime Minister of the Kurdistan Regional Government, in the presence of His Excellency Bassem Khalil Al-Salem, Chairman of Capital Bank, and Nozad Hadi, Governor of Erbil, in addition to National Bank of Iraq Board Members and a number of prominent figures in the region.
The new Erbil branch increases the total number of NBIRQ branches to seven, three of which are located in Baghdad, one in Mosul, one in Karbala and one in Basra.
“We are delighted that the National Bank of Iraq has brought its services to Erbil in addition to the other provinces it is already serving and we are also pleased that the National Bank of Iraq branch is the only Capital Bank branch in the Region. Erbil is currently witnessing exceptional economic activity as a result of its political stability making it a prime destination for investors that are targeting the Iraqi market”, said His Excellency Dr. Barham Salih, Prime Minister of the Kurdistan Regional Government.
“Our investment in the National Bank of Iraq is a long-term strategic decision that stems from Capital Bank’s firm belief in the wide-ranging economic opportunities that are available in Iraq”, commented His Excellency Bassem Khalil Al-Salem, Chairman of Capital Bank, the fourth largest bank in Jordan in terms of capital.
“As the only Jordanian Bank in Iraq that provides both commercial and investment banking services – through its investment arm Capital Investments – our relationship with the National Bank of Iraq allows Capital Bank to better service businessmen and merchants in Jordan and support the increase of Jordanian exports to Iraq”, stated Al-Salem.
Al-Salem went on to affirm that the National Bank of Iraq aims to strengthen ties and enhance investment opportunities between Jordan and Iraq, which is considered one of the fastest growing economies in the world.
Don't you just love to hear these words: which is considered one of the fastest growing economies in the world. So just how long do you think they can keep their currency worthless? Not very long my friends!
New Private Banks in Iraq
Iraq’s Central Bank has reportedly granted new banking licences to four new private banks, each with capital of 250 billion Iraqi dinars [$212 million].
This reportedly brings the number of private banks operating in Iraq to 35.
Meanwhile, an economic advisor to the Prime Minister is quoted as saying that a package of incentives is being prepared to encourage small private banks to merge and form larger, stronger entities. Article.
We believe that all of the auctions in Iraq over the last several months was to move the lower denomination bills to the Iraqi banks preparing for the RI/RV, for the Iraqi citizens. This is so they don’t have to carry a $5,000.00 bill to go and buy a loaf of bread, and how do you make change for that when you lowest bill is a $1,000.00 or a $5,000.00 IQD note. The reverse of that is they pass out the lower denomination notes but don’t RI/RV. Now you need a wheelbarrow to carry enough cash to buy that same loaf of bread… By the way I have seen pictures of these new notes, so I know they do exist.
We heard Maliki in his address last week (several months ago now), tell the GOI to revalue the IQD as soon as they can.
We know that Iraq has the oil to backup the new elevated currency. Just today this article came out.
Iraqi oil reveal produced 4,000 tons of liquid gas per day
Baghdad, 3 October (aknews) – the federal Iraqi oil Ministry announced, Monday, that gas oil output reached 4,000 tons a day.
Ministry Undersecretary Ahmad Al Kurdistan News Agency (aknews) "the oil Ministry produces 4,000 tons per day of oil through the enigmatic quickly deployed in all governorates of Iraq is enough lsdhagh country."
"The Ministry is to import tons of liquid gas in order to avoid critical or emergency conditions and is working to reach self-sufficiency in liquid gas consumption."
The Iraqi oil Ministry announced Saturday that it produces 12 million l/j from gasoline with imported 12 million l/j per day.
She stopped providing civil and governmental owners generators with fuel free and return to the previous processing contexts.
The Ministry attributed the causes of the high consumption of petroleum products to Iraq high import cars and power outages.
The Iraqi Government announced last June on the allocation of $ 400 million to equip civil and governmental owners generators with fuel for free.
We know that Baker Jaber AL Zubaidi states that the Iraqi Dinar Value should be Raised. <-- This is a great article with solid government links.
We know that Maliki wants our troops to leave.
We have Dr. Sinan al-Shibibi in news interviews and articles, on more than one occasion throughout the year telling us they are going to raise the value of their currency this year.
Let's talk about the dinar value and raising it;
Here is an actual article in print about raising the value of the Iraqi Dinar. Dr. Sinan al-Shibibi in this article talks about the exchange rate. The actual quote: "He pointed out that the bank wants and means to affect the economic and monetary policy by making the dinar valuable and powerful." Article.
Let's talk about the timing now;
First of all, I am very tired of all the emails I get saying that "my great friend's sources in which I cannot share" says, bla, bla, bla and it is done. Okay, really? You all know who they are.
I feel like this whole predicting the date and rate has become a popular Vegas betting line game. Who will be first is the game. Ray and I, and I speak for our mods, do not care who is first, but rather who is accurate in facts.
What we do know is the Erbil Agreement is very important along with the ministers and HCL laws. Not one person on this planet (other than a few key people in Iraq) can tell us exactly the status of these things. However, I concur that they will pretty much be all done together or simultaneously. I think with an ego that Maliki has, he will want to take credit for this and make some sort of an announcement after it happens.
HCL news today: As you can see, a few kinks need to be worked out. I do not think this will hold anything up however.
An Iraqi parliamentary Committee: still Bill pending oil and gas
October 3, 2011
Member of the Committee on oil and gas in the Iraqi Council of representatives on Monday, that the draft law of the State oil and gas, and oil and gas Bill still pending parliamentary so far, resolving the Kurdish problem in Baghdad by voting.
The Deputy from changing, Bayezid Hassan Kurdistan News (aknews) said that the "alleged that oil and gas Committee in the House of new Bill is shame on health, and the matter remains pending, with government officials in Baghdad speaking on the amendment to the draft law of the State oil and gas in canine Council through voting.
He noted that "according to the experience of the past four years, cannot happen at any time to resolve its problems with the Federal Government via vote, and that the option agreement was the best way to deal with things, and should therefore be on Al Kurd should pursue this option, and only allow resolving the issue of oil and gas Act through a vote in Congress."
Hassan said that "Deputies conducted the second reading of the draft hydrocarbon law on 17 August, and has been read 26 articles of the draft law, but at the request of the National Alliance were stopped the Bill, and in 25 of the same month the Iraqi Government approved a draft law on oil and gas in the majority of the votes and sent to the House of representatives, although one of the 19 contained in working paper signed by Kurdish Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki stated that the adoption of the draft law of oil and gas in harmony".
And the Iraqi Government announced, on 28 August last, on the ratification of the draft law of oil and gas, and decided to refer it to Parliament for ratification, while the Office of the Deputy Prime Minister for Energy Affairs, Hussain Shahristani, on 2 July last, the Government introduced some amendments to the draft of the long-awaited oil law, which was the Committee on energy in the Cabinet.
The deputies of National Alliance, which includes a State of law coalition and the comrades and the Islamic Supreme Council, were pulled out of 24 deputies meeting held on 17 August last, after opposition to the first reading of the proposed law of oil and gas in the Chamber of deputies directly without presentation to the competent ministries, which led to the lifting of a one-hour meeting, the Council Presidency, then decided to postpone the reading.
The effects of oil and gas bill submitted by the Government to House mixed reactions, most individual position and Patriotic Alliance of Kurdistan region Presidency rejecting the project.
I still think you need to watch the forex boards and just let it show up. Then when it does, take a second look then scream (or something like that.)
Will any of us know ahead of time? Truthfully, no. Because of the huge impact it will have, it will happen globally all at once. Timing is everything now.
So, please keep posting the news, good or bad and just let this come to you and play out. I wish I could speed up things, but all I can do is assure that we will all cross the finish line at the same time, and in style.
I am confident it will happen in the near future. Could it and will it happen in a few days? Maybe, but probably not. Could it and will it happen in a few weeks or couple of months? More than likely and probably will. Will it happen in 2012 or the next couple years? Absolutely not. The country would financially fall apart.
I understand this is not much new, however it is a short recap of where we are and the future that lies ahead of the Iraqi people. Personally, between Rays contacts and family members in Iraq, my partner in Iraq, Iraq has taken huge strides and major progress in the rebuilding process of this country. I believe you have every county in the world working and helping Iraq achieve their goals. When Iraq emerges as a new economic giant, we all are winners, but moreover, the Iraqi people who have endured such terrible living conditions because of one past human dictator. This is way the Erbil agreement is so important.
Right now, Talibani has 1/3 power, and Maliki has 2/3 power. Once the Erbil agreement is put into law, it will be Talibani 1/3, Allawi 1/3 and Maliki 1/3. Now you will have true power sharing and this country will move along even faster and achieve even greater things.
All positive my friends and I will say this again, this investment I got involved in, and hopefully you as well, will be very rewarding in due time. This is something you cannot rush. Many members have also expressed the timing will be when Iraq is ready and not one minute or day before.
I truly still stand firm in my statement about the 200% assurance of this investment. I sure all hope you all feel that way too.
Here is a recap of how the world views the necessary changes in and for Iraq after a recent study:
To the Government of Iraq and to the Council of Representatives:
1. Strengthen the anti-corruption framework to allow for greater and more effective cooperation and coordination between the various state institutions involved in combating corruption, specifically by:
2. Pass political party legislation requiring parties to display financial transparency and publish detailed annual accounts, including all sources of income and expenditures.
3. Reform the Council of Representatives’ bylaws, including by removing administrative matters from the speaker’s prerogatives, facilitating the formulation of legislative bills and accelerating the lawmaking process.
4. Streamline the legislative process by:
5. Reform the Council of Representatives’ oversight function to focus on policy implementation through the questioning of senior technocrats and administrative officers rather than politicians.
6. Enact a law that would prevent the head of the Higher Judicial Council from occupying the position of chief justice, and protect the Supreme Court’s independence by forbidding any political interference.
To the United States and other members of the International Community:
7. Publicly express disapproval of the Iraqi government’s and parliament’s failures regarding long-overdue reform.
8. Provide immediate and direct support to the Council of Representatives by seconding experts in parliamentary development to work directly in the Council’s offices on a long-term basis.
9. Support efforts to reform the anti-corruption framework, notably through advice on rendering administrative functions more efficient.
The finish line is just ahead, or at least I can finally see it now! If you are still not a believer in this investment after all of the positive news articles and facts I laid out above, I am not sure I nor anyone else will convince you that this is a very good investment providing you are willing to be positive and let it come to you.
Anyway, I look forward to meeting each and every one of you that will be coming to Arizona post RV and we can all start our new lives together. I promise not to leave you or quit on you as we have come along ways and I am here with you all until the end.
Until we reach the finish line together, blessings to you all. Have a great week. We will all keep you posted and updated as events take place. I will leave you with this thought because many of you are hurting at various levels; compassion offers whatever is necessary to heal the hurts of others because leaders are their best when people get behind them!