Tlar & Friends Q & A With Comments From Updated Email To Family & Friends Part 1
Buttercup: Tlar, thank you so much. I haven't heard anything lately about those committees set up to revisit the budget and pull out all the Maliki b.s. -- do you know anything about that, Tlar? Hopefully, the budget is done now with all necessary revisions and only needs a vote. Thanks again.
DreamWeaver: Tlar, once again. Great post that is appreciated. Respectfully, I don't agree with you on two points.
#1 - August 8th is way too optimistic in my opinion IF I were going to specify a date. Love ya Tlar, :) but IMO there will be no "settled political situation" until new PM and his ministers and cabinet are voted in by Parliament--and I just don't see that being finished by August 8th.
#2 - IMO there is no "settled political situation" with ISIS running amock. Yes, I believe the Sunnis will resolve it relatively quickly after Mal is gone, BUT that will still take some time.
DreamWeaver Continues: Turki had his hands full just dealing with counterfeit situation and getting to 2% spread, so I cannot imagine that he would risk ISIS being able to buy massive weapons through an RV that surely didn't need to occur until after ISIS' demise.
For nearly a year, I've expected this RV to occur around this time because of what I've gleaned through reading articles, etc, as everything seems to be dovetailing at this point (banking, smart cards, tariffs--with SFA in Sept) and I agree 100% with you that the RV is event driven.
The RV has always been event driven -- though trying to figure out which event or series of events will trigger the RV is like being in a dark room, blindfolded -- taking swipes at a pinata.
We do not disagree that this is the optimum time ... and I respect that you may be accurate about the rate ... but I just cannot get all worked up about August 8th, yet, as Iraq is a mine field of disappointing expectations ... as they just don't function in a logical way.
That's my 2 cents, my friend, and would welcome your thoughts on how Turki could possibly view just an elected PM as a "settled" government when Parl could vote it down and while ISIS is still a threat. Blessings ~ DW.
Rissas dad: Thanks tlar. Don't expect much news today as you say, but I am looking to see how quiet Maliki and his supporters are today. I think we can bank on him being done and if there isn't any of the usual posturing by them today then I think we can rest easy and look forward to tomorrow.
RDiddy: Thanks for sharing your thoughts, Tlar. They're moving at lightning speed, compared to the last 5 years I've been part of the dinar world. Thank God the Iraqi people are finally going to have the freedom and democracy they've been waiting for.
Blue Duck: Very good Tlar, I love the way you put the forth coming events but must say DW raises some valid questions...thanks for the brain stimulation as there's much to think about over a cup of coffee...Cheers!
Laura: Takes lots of time to shift through information, and put together a conclusion. No matter the date, we really are almost there, and appreciate everyone's efforts so very much. Thank you, Tlar!
Good morning everyone.....great start for another good week, one more day...closer.
KJWayne: Everybody has thier own opinion of what is happing and what is about to. DW brings forth good concerns and tlar has good understanding of the articles that have been put forth.
We don't have to make any decisions because WE are not in the equation. All we have to do is wait. We are real good at that! Take this time to go over YOUR plans for cashin in and your steps to the rest of your future. When this thing hits(RV), it might be to late to start planning or mistakes can be made.
Go hug your kids and grandkids today and everytime you get a chance. I'm sure gonna plan on my grandkids being taken care of for a while, after RV . Ya'll, here on CC. matter to me ! see ya.
rissas dad: DreamWeaver, you asked Tlar but I hope you dont mind if I express my opinion. If you do mind, please just dont read it.
You bring up some points that I have been thinking about as well. As an optimistic-skeptic I believe as you do.
However I think Tlar is betting that the council of ministers has already been decided upon, regardless of if it is Mahdi or Chalabi. There are indications based on presented articles that they have been meeting for a good while on this new government.
The most important thing here, and you talked about yourself, is the ISIS problem. They dont have time to delay this any longer than absolutely necessary. ISIS themselves have said they will return to Syria once Maliki is gone. The sunni tribes have said they will force them out also.
The US have said they will not help Maliki dispel them as it would be seen has helping the Shia. But a non-sectarian new Iraqi government, thats a whole other story.
The US can help a gov that is represented by all. It wont be seen as devisive.
In other words, this is being setup to be resolved very quickly. They say they will leave, the US will help force them out, and the sunnis will turn on them. Not to mention the Peshmerga. It wont take long.
The PM and his cabinet will be released very soon. I do not expect there to be a delay in between the naming of the PM and the forming of his cabinet.
Will all of them be put up for a vote in Parliament on the 5th? Probably not but Massum and Jabouri arent playing around. It wouldnt surprise me if sometime between the 5th to the 8th they will be presented for a vote.
And they will be voted in just as Massum and Jabouri were, quickly and without much here-to-fore. They dont have time to waste.
The other reason and probably the biggest is they are broke. That word should be capitalized.
And not the RV is in the budget thing, I mean money for them to operate and fight this incursion and get things going. And I dont buy this ISIS robbing banks and stealing dinar.
The first Mosul story turned out to be bull to. There have lots of articles stating there is no liquidity in the banks. Milliions of dinar in a single bank. Nope, sorry.
Sure some is dispersed around over these years to some groups who we probably dont want to have it, but that wont change. Most of those groups spend as they get it which means dollars, not a dinar that may be worth alot at some point.
Just my two cents.
The only delays of the last few weeks have been the constitutional restraints, which have been well within the outlined timeframes, and boxing in Maliki and eroding his support within the NA (ie state of law).
The other delay was the "feast" which will be over tomorrow. If you dont think they are in a hurry, think about Ramadan. Have you ever seen them do a fraction of what has been done this year! That speaks volumes.
BigJohn: Thanks Tlar. Great summation of where we are.
DW. Turki said he would Not Hesitate to push the delete the zeros project forward. you do raise some interesting questions. But, I have to agree w Tlar that this is not going to drag out.
We are so very very close.
Jonathan Simmons: Thanks, Tlar, you summed it up very well. My only question has been asked a couple of times by myself and others but really hasn't been responded to, and maybe you don't know.
Are there assurances given to the NA that Badr's (or any other) bloc can pull a switcheroo and vote for the SOL once the voting commences.
Is it possible that this could be part of a ruse to think the NA now has the numbers and lead them into thinking the NA's candidate will win when in reality they vote for Maliki?
Just because they vote for NA in the bloc voting doesn't mean they have to come the actual vote in Parliament. Is there something Badr would have had to sign to lick his support in place?
I know this is kind of a reach and don't expect it to come into play but it would be good to have more certainty of the situation.
I don't believe Badr's bloc members are threatened because of immunity being lifted as that is the case with some other SOL members who are tied in closer to Maliki, but when you start throwing in Shakristani and Dawa's names in there it raises a bit of a red flag as I would expect some of them would be susceptible to prosecution once immunity if lifted after the vote.
As far as DW's comments go, I think ISIS is going to have their collective **** handed to them in short order. The writing on the wall is plain to see and we're already starting to see movement, leaders killed, ammunition brought over (can you say Hellfire missiles), and some heading for Syria.
Once Maliki is officially gone I think the motivation for them to fight will diminish as well as it will basically achieve what they're fighting for.
We've been storing up intelligence on them for a couple of months now and you can see that when we want to target someone (Baghdad Ali sp) we've managed to do it well. IMO this will ramp up quite a bit over the next couple of weeks.
The Aug 8th date seems to imply the last day constitutionally that is on the calendar for the 15 days to be up (and I know you know that DW).
How Turki reads a complete GOI is anybody's guess.
Will a new PM be enough or will having his full Cabinet and ministers in place be considered complete.
Knowing that the POR can appoint basically whoever he wants if the first nominee can't form his Cabinet or is voted down, the fact that there are two very reliable candidates for the post of PM, and the enormous rush to get all this done quickly and form the government, along with all the economic reasons to do this, I side closer to Tlar's timeline. Here's to urgency and smooth sailing!
Rocko: I believe they will know the nominees before voting. I don't think Jourbori would have a vote if Maliki is a nominee. Even if he is the rest of parliament wouldn't vote him in and Masum could then choose Mahdi of Chalabi for a new nominee. I think we're in a good place either way.
Rockstar: I also believe that they already know who the next PM will be and the ministers have already been in the process of being selected! I read this in an article last week it was just one sentence that said they were in the process of selecting the ministers, just can't remember where.
Anyway it looks like Tlar put out the August 8th date because constitutionally that is when they must have the next PM selected, he is not saying it will RV by that date.
I always remember that Allawi said he could seat his goi within 48 hours so I do not believe it will take them another 30 days to do this! The budget is going back to Parliament also next week to be voted on as well so there are so many things lining up that we need to see!
Now IMO I do believe as long as the PM is set and the ministers do get voted in Parliament very shortly then we will see an increase in the value of the Dinar!
Hopefully by the middle of August they can accomplish the fully seated GOI. I also believe that Isis will be a moot point once the new PM is selected. They have even said themselves that once Maliki is gone so will they! Great post Tlar thanks again for sharing some great information!
Tlar: Jonathan Simmons, Artices are now saying Maliki just wants a MP position as we all suspect just to keep his immunity. Other articles are saying he has pulled his name from the short list of PM's.
We know that al-Jaafari is in that list as well as Sharistani and Chalabi and Maudi.
When they go to vote al-Jaafari and Shahristani will be quickly dispatched because they too are unacceptable to the Sunni's and Kurds, leaving either Chalabi or Mahdi as the winner.
Both al Jaafari and Sharistani' blocks had really bad showings in the recent elections gaining only a couple of MP's each. They have very little political support because of their association with Maliki and their abandonment of the SOL.
So both the SOL and the coalition have problems with them.
When it comes time to vote each member in the NA whether Coalition or SOL, will have one vote and that vote can only be cast toward one of the nominees on the list.
Maliki is out period by pulling his nomination unless he re-nigs again and wants the SOL to put him back on the list. The SOL as a party has committed political suicide and as such will get little to no ministries in this new government.
The real shake up will come when their leadership leaves the country and in my opinion we are very close to that.
The bank records in Jordan and Qatar of theft by these guys have been there waiting on a moment like this for over a year and go all the way back to when they (Maliki and the SOL) tried unsuccessfully to burn the second floor of the CBI which is where the outgoing money transfers department exists.
Those records still exist along with where the money went showing bank account numbers and such. I am sure the forensics have been done sitting in files since 2009..
So the leadership of the SOL that has caused so much of the trouble in this process having just lost control through being the largest block, is screwed. It is only a matter of time now. tlar
Oldwazhisname: Tlar, let me ask a question. The NA has supposedly nominated 5 candidates for PM.
Don't you think that the 5 is for consideration by the NA alone in order to vote and narrow them to 1 for the POR to identify/announce as the PM-in-waiting.
That 1 goes out and identifies all of his minsisters and the balance of the government positions he is asking for final approval on?
Comments here seem to have people thinking that 5 different guys will go out there and try to form a government and all come back for vote by parliment. That would be total chaos.
DreamWeaver: Hey, "Duke" ... love seeing John when you post. One of my all time favorites.
Just to be clear about my post. It wasn't about date dragging out ... though I still believe August 8th is very optimistic considering this group of guys are more interested in crossing "t"s and dotting "i" s than rushing forward.
The point of my post was that Tlar and I do not see eye to eye on our interpretation of what Turki means by "settled" government.
Even if the PM and the entire government were elected and seated by August 8th, I'd still disagree with Tlar about Turki doing RV with ISIS still at large .. which will be the case as there is no way ISIS will be instantly handled on the same day the GOI is seated.
No matter. Just my thoughts. And sense I'm a very optimistic person, I'm in Tlar's corner on this one! :D Best thoughts, Big John, and all -- good points made. ~ DW