Tlar’s Thoughts On My Ladies Sunday Morning Post - "The Time is Now!"
Tlar: Overall I think these gals are right on the basic scenario. I too am a firm believer that all the stalling , the stop and go, is over at this point. I think that the basic holdup over the last month has been that they are so close to the new accounting period (Jan 1st) that they had decided to wait.
Through the years the CBI has said that the ideal time is to start on a new calendar year so it would not surprise me if that is what they are going to do. We know they are ready because they have said they were ready.
We know they have minted the fils because they told us thy minted the fils. We can assume that the smalls are printed because they just went through a major printing but so far have released only the replacement notes, not the new smalls.
We also know based on what the CBI told us that they will delete the zeros even if the budget is not done, but will do it when the time is right.
Then we just heard that the ATM'S will only be ready to do business when they delete the zeros, but are ready and in place. The girls do have it right that they can only go so far without a currency.
Can you imagine with all the new laws passed and getting ready to be passed along with a budget, that they would hold for another 12 months? I personally think that it is the currency that will make it all come together.
So with that in mind I believe we will see the monetary change between the 25th of Dec to the 31st. Right or wrong, that's how I see it. A new Iraq will go global on the 1st of January in my opinion and the currency is the icing on the cake. I feel that they will not pass up this opportunity again.
I also think we will see a reality rate right out of the shoot. I think the CBI is unwilling to shock their society but one time. Not the two step process that they were asked to do.
This is Iraq and they are making very tough decisions every day but it appears the Abadi administration is willing to risk their own lives to get it done for Iraq and its citizens.
I think the CBI has done the same thing. They are moving and making decisions based on what's best for Iraq not on what some other government thinks they should do out of that governments self interest.
In all of the top leaders in Iraq there appears to be a common goal. They are on a mission to save Iraq. They are about to do it if they stay the course. Going global is a big part of their strategy. They know there is no choice but to succeed.
Again this is my opinion. According to the intel this should already have been done.
Change is about all you can expect in a violent storm. Goals and targets are set. You take your shot at a moving target and if you miss, you adjust your aim and try it again. It is a fundamental truth.
It is impossible to set anything other than a desired outcome because plans and goals are guaranteed to change. As frustrating as it is, they are the moving target. I think this time they will get it right. At least I hope so. Tlar
Add On Monday Morning:
I think the move to article VIII will be in conjunction with the change in monetary policy. I also think that all the laws albeit important, will fall when they fall and have at this time little bearing on monetary policy. The economic draw to investors, IMO will be the currency.
The most important legislation, the budget, which sets the stage for economic development in Iraq, the CBI has already said that they will do it when the timing is right whether the budget is done or not.
It is worrisome to me that Saleh said the timing would be better in 2016 but Abadi seems desperate to get this economy going. Personally at this point in the game, I think they would be crazy to hold this back another year.
They can pass all the laws they want and promise a better future to the people but without an international currency, what has really changed?
So my gut is telling me that for the new era to begin, they must now show their cards.
When the IMF indicated that their job with Iraq was done it got me to thinking. The overall responsibility of the IMF is to referee world currencies and level the playing field, so it makes me wonder what they mean when the say this.
Personally I saw it as a small pat on the back that the IMF was giving themselves I think by now we can all agree Iraq is ready to delete the zeros and that that, is their end goal.
We can all agree that something is going to change otherwise why print the fils? That would have been a huge waste of public money. It is only the timing of this event that is disputable in my opinion.
My money is on this happening whether all the legislation gets done before or not.
My money is on Article VIII happening when the value is introduced and not before. My money is on this happening whether the budget is done or not. I would also like to say this is my opinion, not intel.
I think they would be foolish to let the momentum die by waiting another year. tlar
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