Wealthwatch Early AM Discussion 7-23-15 Part 1 of 2
Post From Wealthwatch.world Chat Room 7-23-15 Early Early Morning
BOBBY: anyone up?
KiwiDoc: I'm not anyone but I'm up!!
KiwiDoc: ‹@BOBBY› are you on the east coast?
BOBBY: lol... how are you tonight
KiwiDoc: Good It's just a bit before 5 in the afternoon here
BOBBY: i believe we are central time... its almost mid night here
KiwiDoc: If your near midnight, west coast is 5 hours then plus 2 puts you in central time.....Alabama or west I recon
KiwiDoc: It's winter here. not that cold mid to upper 40's to 50's . Just waitin on an RV!!
BOBBY: You and me both.... i feel its gonna be a wait though
KiwiDoc: It's always been said that it will happen when we least expect it and I think that is true.
BOBBY: i agree.... just dont think the foundation is 100 percnt solid yet
KiwiDoc: Things seem to be improving and that is a good sign. The climate for change seems to be headed in the right direction
BOBBY: i agree. .. i separate the fact from guru fiction. makes life alot simpler
BOBBY: progress is positive.... but slow
KiwiDoc: Likely it will happen with little fanfare and all of sudden it will be, "lets go to the bank!"
chattels: whasup doc ?
BOBBY: my opinion. ..... little to no fanfare
chattels: all good here, and there ?
KiwiDoc: Quiet here, the news here doesn't follow the mid east that much, mostly China
KiwiDoc: and Australia
ladyfox: hi guys, met a retired solider said with boldness ' THE DINAR SHALL REVALUE, TO HOLD FAST" that I will.
ladyfox: in ten words what is the top news of yesterday?
chattels: the best writing i read today was wealthwatch.world/showthr...
KiwiDoc: ‹@chattels› your a man of few words, looks like your up my friend!!
chattels: it is not necessarily " good " news
chattels: The Line in the Sand: Is Sykes-Picot Coming Undone? BY MICHAEL WAHID HANNA hksjmepp.com/the-line-in-...
ladyfox: ‹@chattels› yes I agree a divorce would not be good
chattels: Read the part on decentralization in Iraq
chattels: ‹@ladyfox› sorry, i put the article in a thread on Kurdish independence
KiwiDoc: ‹@chattels› ‹ do you think the US is trying to encourage this split, wasn't Biden saying that a year or so ago
chattels: use the last link
chattels: ‹@KiwiDoc› I do not.
chattels: BIden did talk about separate states.
] chattels: but i think he had in mind a federation at worst
KiwiDoc: Well if Abadi missed the chance to pull this together he will be like Obama, missing a change to create something historic in his country. Just MHO
chattels: this author talks about asymmetric federalism
KiwiDoc: ‹@chattels› now there is a great new phrase......how can you argue with that.....
KiwiDoc: ‹@chattels› kind of like feeling strongly both ways
KiwiDoc: political journalism at it's best
chattels: ‹@KiwiDoc› i like to think that Abadi is picking his battles and acting as a statesman when he can with what he can
KiwiDoc: ‹@chattels› so to accomplish a little instead of nothing, like Maliki without the genicide
chattels: little favorable comparison with Maliki in my sense of it
chattels: Abadi is far less of a centralist than Maliki
] KiwiDoc: When I read the article in Al-Monitor about the tribes south of Bagdad still using trading of women to settle disputes it hit home that even thought this is where civilization supposedly started, there is a heck of a long way to go before things can come right.
chattels: Abadi favors more " state's rights " than federalism, IMO
chattels: ‹@KiwiDoc› Christianity was the great liberator of women. Islam, well, ........................
KiwiDoc: ‹@chattels› yes but the articles that discussed the delay in military support during the seiges of Ramadi and other cities from Bagdad don't ring of support from the GOI.
chattels: Iraq has lots of problems, no doubt
] KiwiDoc: You notice that there hasn't been much discussion at any point that I've seen regarding the Christian abuses, which have gone unaddressed by Bagdad to any great degree. or have I missed something along the way?
chattels: ‹@KiwiDoc› No, i have read / seen nothing about christian abusers
chattels: if you mean Muslim outrage at the abuse of christian, there has been a smattering out of Baghdad, more from KUrdistan
KiwiDoc: the curds have been the only ones to come to their defense that I've seen
chattels: ‹@KiwiDoc› Christian refugees languish in camps, looking for hope rudaw.net/english/kurdist...
KiwiDoc: At some point there has to be reconciliation publically, and I don't see the Muslim government wanting to do that
chattels: ‹@KiwiDoc› the christian populace must be included in the " national reconciliation "
KiwiDoc: agreed but I haven't seen any indication of that happening, certainly nothing from Abadi publically that Ive seen
chattels: ‹@KiwiDoc› compassion for christians is not at the top of the list for sure
chattels: no good political future in it for the near term
KiwiDoc: for sure, and once the RV goes, it will be about access for the oil production is my guess
chattels: “oil nationalism is the fundamental arrangement underlying the Iraqi state.” hksjmepp.com/the-line-in-...
chattels: " The centrality of oil to this arrangement means that “a relatively equitable distribution of this wealth will be key to future stability, ...... "
KiwiDoc: I think it's always been about the oil from day 1
chattels: and Basra has 80 % of the oil production in Iraq at present
KiwiDoc: But Basra is in the south right?
chattels: Basra is Shia country as you know
chattels: ‹@KiwiDoc› yes, Iraq's only seaport
KiwiDoc: Also where they are having all shipping come in at this point, the other border crossings are controlled by ISIS as I understand it
chattels: the KUrds have the other 20 %
KiwiDoc: The article you referenced the Kurd certainly sound like they want out....without a fight
chattels: the Sunni have little oil or other resources, except maybe phosphates
KiwiDoc: But the phosphates have value and if they can access that financially, that should help to smooth over some of the sectarian strife one would think....No being left out in the cold so to speak
chattels: ‹@KiwiDoc› the Kurds are situated much like the southern states in 1860
KiwiDoc: Good analogy
chattels: if there is an armed conflict it will be one of Shia aggression
KiwiDoc: It wouldn't be their first
chattels: except maybe in Kirkuk and other disputed areas that were historically Kurdish
chattels: i believe that the Kurds will fight over Kirkuk
KiwiDoc: It will be interesting to see how the Kurds handle the change over and amnesty for the ISIS fighters who jumped ship from the Iraqi forces after all the killing that went on
chattels: i believe that much of the Kurdish hesitation is centered upon accomplishing as much constitutionally and without bloodshed under the Iraqi constitution
chattels: in the disputed areas under article 140
KiwiDoc: But you don't think they want out?
chattels: ‹@KiwiDoc› longer term, yes
chattels: ultimately there will be a Kurdish nation, IMO
KiwiDoc: It was Bagdad, granted Sadaam who bombed them, used chemical weapons.....a real mess
chattels: there are also aspirations of a greater Kurdistan, Rojava in Syria , and parts of Turkey and Iran
chattels: it is very complicated and i do not pretend to grasp it all - books have been written
chattels: the Kurdish diaspora is the largest on the planet
chattels: there are many similarities with Israel
KiwiDoc: That I didn't know
chattels: Turkey's real concern: Greater Kurdistan
chattels: Here's The New Kurdish Country That Could Emerge Out Of The Iraq Crisis Read more: www.businessinsider.com/h...
chattels: The Kurds, an ethnic group numbering around 30 million people, are spread throughout northern Iraq and Syria, western Iran, and eastern Turkey. They are considered to be the largest stateless national group in the world. Read more: www.businessinsider.com/h...
KiwiDoc: There is a definite possiblitly for us to get out from under Turkey's bases and use Kurd bases in the future I bet, just a hunch
chattels: The Kurds in Iraq have actually expanded the total territory they control by 40% since ISIS took over Mosul. This has fueled fears in Iraq that Iraqi Kurdistan may declare itself a fully independent state. Read more: www.businessinsider.com/h...
] chattels: Iraqi Kurdistan already runs itself in much the same way an independent nation would. It has its own armed forces, and it has been selling its own oil for half the price of what the rest of Iraq charges through a pipeline to the Turkish port of Ceyhan.
It is estimated that the Kurdish region contains a quarter of all of Iraq's oil. That figure is likely an understatement now that the Kurds control Kirkuk — a key oil hub. Read more: www.businessinsider.com/h...
chattels: the Kurds need to double their current production to be financially independent of Basra / Baghdad
chattels: with Kirkuk they will have the resources for the longer term, in the meanwhile they are consolidating their gains upon the ground and improving their value to the world
chattels: they will have to have international support
KiwiDoc: We will be back it I bet
chattels: we are seemingly getting warmer, but we have left the Kurds hanging before
chattels: as you can see I am a Kurd sympathizer
KiwiDoc: We have left several hanging before, I'm a fan of their's as well
chattels: our foreign policy leaves much to be desired, eh ?
KiwiDoc: These last 7 years have been added to the previous which has been diasterous
KiwiDoc: Our foreign policy is and has been a mess
chattels: bed time for bonzo here, tomorrow is another day
KiwiDoc: yes it is....all the best and don't forget to sing Happy Birthday......
chattels: thanks for the chat
chattels: ‹@KiwiDoc› :)
KiwiDoc: it was entirely my pleasure.....I feel quite blessed to chat with you....thanks
chattels: Godspeed the completion of the Iraqi banking sector reform project.
KiwiDoc: From your lips to God's ears
chattels: 7-22-2015 Newshound Guru Kxxx Once sanctions were lifted on Iraq, and the banking system, Iraq is free to engage with the world. [so the sanctions have been lifted? is that right?]
Yes...sanctions are lifted some years ago. But currently they are under Article XIV with the IMF which is technically called "Transitional" So Iraq is free to engage with any financial instution that is "willing" to take the risk.
And many do...Especially since the CBI now guarentees funds/payments from it's financial institutions. The bottom line, is as long as the CBI is under Article XIV they will have trouble finding instutions to do business with them. Its just the nature of it.
Now, once the CBI has met the conditions of the Article IV Consultations...And have demonstrated that they can function by those conditions...They can ask the IMF to give them the blessing of sorts to move from Article XIV to VIII.
chattels: 7-22-2015 Newshound Guru Kxxxxx Article IV Consultations are the name the annual reviews that take place between the IMF and the Central bank.
Once the IMF agrees, and the CBI accepts Article VIII, that is like offering a warranty...it makes Iraq much more attractive to global banks and it makes a clear statement that the CBI is in compliance with the IMF.
Banks that are conservative in nature (like Wells Fargo) would only do business with other banks that are VIII compliant.
I am not saying they would, but Article VIII is a good start for global commerce with the dinar...without it, they continue to struggle for banking partners.
So, the article was techically correct.."the Iraqi market is now open to markets Global directly without restrictions".
Comments may be made at the end of Part 2 Thank You