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We were discussing a number of issues about Iraq and its many changes politically economically and historically in the chat room. I did not want to hog chat regarding these conversation points so I opted post my nderstanding of the facts and my thoughts on what makes this a sustainable resource for our investment.
Since Britain granted Iraq titular independence to Iraq back in 1933, they failed dismally in their efforts to bring political stability and Western institutions of government, law and freedom to Iraq. Nobody has successfully transplanted any of the institutions of freedom or western democracy there.
Through the succession of many puppet governments, it is clear that the Shiite and Sunni struggle for who is the rightful successor to Muhammad is the issue or root cause alongside the myriad of moral and ethical practices that define the players in this latest attempt to install democracy into their culture.
I marvel that we have made it this far, and ask myself what have we done different than our predecessors in Iraq to promote stability and independence? Those are tidy little words stability and independence. Does anyone for just a moment believe that our presence in Iraq is limited to just these ideals?
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Right after Britain withdrew its military in 1933 like we are about to do, the Iraqi army under Gen. Bakr Sidqi launched a massive pogrom against the Assyrians in northern Iraq. Three years later, he overthrew the government! The killing was massive, indiscriminate and old men, women and children were the victims.
I believe that we could repeat history once again should we withdraw our military and political influence and allow the Iraqi army and its political leadership the opportunity to mix business with religion. Do I think this is something to worry about? The answer is No!
The one major difference in my opinion that will magnify both success and failure in Iraq is that of Energy and Global Economics. We all know that their contribution to our global economic situation and our appetite for oil are best served from a more structured business & political platform, flawed as it may be. In a way it’s like we trained a new poker player how to play, then invited him to our high stakes poker game pledging their resources as chips and all the players leave the table with something, while drinks are on the house lol.
Conclusion: The mechanisms necessary for this transformation are playing out right before our eyes. We are actually tracking a mix of singular events that will both serve us as investors and the world economy on many levels. The global crisis at hand is very real, and so is the solution we have forecast and understand as we are mindful of its many ingredients. Knowledge is power and the benefits are at hand. This is what is keeping this investment viable in my opinion.
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